UFC 304 Fight Card Preview, Odds & Predictions: Green vs. Pimblett

The excitement surrounding UFC 304 is palpable as the highly anticipated event approaches. Scheduled for Saturday, July 27, at Co-op Live in Manchester, England, this pay-per-view promises thrilling fights, including two title bout rematches. Leon Edwards will defend his UFC welterweight championship against Belal Muhammad in the main event, while Tom Aspinall faces Curtis Blaydes for the interim heavyweight title in the co-main event.

UFC 304 Schedule and Broadcast Details

UFC 304 will take place at Co-op Live in Manchester, England. The event’s main card will be available on ESPN+ pay-per-view at 10:00 p.m. ET, preceded by the ESPN2 prelims at 8:00 p.m. ET, and the early prelims on ESPN+ starting at 6:15 p.m. ET.

Before we delve into the headline bouts, a pivotal lightweight contest between Bobby “King” Green and Paddy Pimblett is set to be a significant highlight.

Bobby “King” Green: Career Overview

Bobby Green (32-15-1-1), now officially known as King Green, has been a dynamic presence in the UFC since his debut in February 2013 following a 4-1 run with Strikeforce. Green entered the UFC with an impressive four-fight winning streak and continued his success with four consecutive victories between 2013 and mid-2014.

However, Green faced challenges, losing his next three bouts before halting his skid with a draw against Lando Vannata in 2017. A decision win over Erik Koch followed, but he then lost his subsequent two fights. Green regained momentum in late 2021 by knocking out Al Iaquinta and securing a decision victory over Nasrat Haqparast in February 2022. Despite setbacks against Islam Makhachev and Drew Dober, Green has since gone 3-1, with notable wins over Tony Ferguson (submission), Grant Dawson (knockout), and Jim Miller (decision).

Green is known for his entertaining fighting style, characterized by his taunts and low guard, which invites opponents to engage before he counters with his quick and precise strikes. However, his preference for showmanship can sometimes lead to risky situations.

Paddy Pimblett: Career Overview

Paddy Pimblett (21-3), who joined the UFC in 2021, brought a wave of hype from his tenure with Cage Warriors, where he held the featherweight title and contended for the lightweight crown. Pimblett’s confidence, bordering on arrogance, has fueled high expectations for his UFC career.

Pimblett started his UFC journey with three consecutive stoppage wins, earning “Performance of the Night” bonuses for his victories over Luigi Vendramini (KO), Rodrigo Vargas (submission), and Jordan Leavitt (submission). He faced tougher competition against Jared Gordon, winning by decision in December 2022, and recently defeated Tony Ferguson by unanimous decision in December 2023.

Pimblett’s current contract with the UFC will end after UFC 304, but he aims to secure a new deal, ideally following a win on Saturday. A versatile fighter, Pimblett is more adept on the mat than in striking, but he doesn’t shy away from exchanges on his feet. One of his weaknesses is his tendency to leave his chin exposed, a vulnerability that Green could exploit with his speed and accuracy.

UFC 304 Betting Odds: Bobby Green vs. Paddy Pimblett

Initially, Bobby Green was a -192 betting favorite over Paddy Pimblett, who was +160. As the fight night draws near, the odds have shifted to a more balanced matchup, with Green at -122 and Pimblett at -107. The adjustment might be influenced by Pimblett’s advantage of fighting in his home country, hailing from Liverpool.

Significant Stats: Green vs. Pimblett

Bobby Green is an active striker, landing 6.45 significant strikes per minute with a striking accuracy of 52 percent. He absorbs 3.75 strikes per minute and boasts a striking defense rate of 62 percent. Green averages 1.19 takedowns per 15 minutes with a takedown accuracy of 38 percent, and his takedown defense stands at 74 percent.

Paddy Pimblett lands 5.13 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 52 percent, absorbing 3.70 significant strikes per minute with a defense rate of 41 percent. His takedown accuracy is 25 percent, averaging 0.98 takedowns per 15 minutes, and his takedown defense is 56 percent.

UFC 304 Prediction and Pick: Bobby Green vs. Paddy Pimblett

Predicting the outcome of this fight is challenging due to both fighters’ unpredictable styles. Bobby Green has the technical edge and experience, but his penchant for showboating can sometimes undermine his performance. On the other hand, Paddy Pimblett is known for leaving his chin exposed during exchanges, which Green can capitalize on with his speed and precision.